‘Meet the Press’ transcript for May 13, 2007

MR. RUSSERT:  The Iraqi parliament says they want to take a two-month vacation while our men and women shed their blood.

SEN. McCAIN:  I am, I am unalterably opposed to it.  One of the real difficulties we face in this conflict, obviously, is whether the Maliki government will act as an inclusive government, and whether the Maliki government will do the things that are necessary to be done.  And I'm very concerned about it.  All of us are very concerned about it.  This government has to pass the oil revenue sharing law.  This government has to pass de-Baathification.  They have to declare elections in the provinces so that Sunni, who now want to take part in the electoral process, can have their representatives.

MR. RUSSERT:  They've had four years to do this.

SEN. McCAIN:  They have had this time, and they have done some things.  It took us about 100 and some years before we had a bloody civil war to decide the future of our country.  This is a fledgling democracy.  I'm not, I'm not making excuses for it, but they have not been in this business before.  And yet that does not change the fact that, in my view, unless they act, it could jeopardize what is already in jeopardy.

MR. RUSSERT:  Would you be in favor of a referendum amongst the Iraqi people to make a decision as to whether U.S. troops should stay or leave?

SEN. McCAIN:  No, no more than I should--would have a referendum in the United States of America as to whether Iraqi troops should leave, or whether we should be in or out of NATO, or any other issue.  The Iraqi government is an elected government, and they are functioning.  And so why we would need a, quote, "referendum" is no more necessary in this country as in that one.  Does the Maliki government have to act more effectively, more inclusively? Absolutely they do, and it's of great concern, and I think it's one of the great vulnerabilities as we try to move forward and succeed there.  Now, what's success?  Economic, political and social progress, which can only be obtained in an environment of security.  Neighborhoods in Baghdad are safer. They're not safe, but they are safer than they were before.  And the government has to function more effectively, and then the Iraqi military and police take over those responsibilities as we gradually withdraw.  That's the recipe for success.

MR. RUSSERT:  The Iraqi army, over 120 battalions.

SEN. McCAIN:  Yep.

MR. RUSSERT:  There are only 10 battalions--10!  That's 6,000 soldiers...

SEN. McCAIN:  Mm-hmm.  Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT:  ...that are independently working separate and apart from Americans.  How can it be, after four years, the Iraqis only have 6,000 soldiers operating independently?

SEN. McCAIN:  Well, two things.  One, because the war was so badly mismanaged.  The--Secretary Rumsfeld claimed that there was, at one point, I believe, 175,000 trained, and they obviously fell apart.  There's a difference, though, between those who can, can perform, quote, "independently," and those that can perform effectively alongside U.S. troops in Baghdad and around the country.  There are--there are Iraqi units that still probably can't stand up on their own, but they can operate effectively alongside U.S. military.  The key to it is, will we be able to train more who can operate independently on their own?  We have a ways to go.  But we, again, with this new strategy--and it is a strategy, not a surge--we have been able to see significant improvement.  Enough improvement?  Probably not.  But at least we're seeing some progress.  And our commanders on the ground are saying that the Iraqi military is functioning far more effectively, effective, and we are seeing progress there.

MR. RUSSERT:  Jim Miklaszewski, our Pentagon correspondent, reports that he's being told by senior military officials that, come April, we do not have the troops to continue to send to Iraq in the rotation that we've been--that's been ongoing.  We simply don't have them.

SEN. McCAIN:  Come next April.

MR. RUSSERT:  That's correct.

SEN. McCAIN:  We are increasing the size of the Army and Marine Corps. Another one of the great failings when we began this was not increasing the size of the Army and Marine Corps.  I've said for years that we need to dramatically increase them, particularly in certain specialties.  I hope that the increased recruitment that we are experiencing now will give us an opportunity to increase those numbers.  I also hope that we can see some signs of success in this challenge that we are facing.

MR. RUSSERT:  General Petraeus said this:  "Any student of history recognizes there's no military solution to a problem like that in Iraq, to the insurgency of Iraq."

SEN. McCAIN:  And, you know, I've had many conversations with General Petraeus and I don't want to put words in his mouth, but he'll also tell you that history shows us, any student of history will tell, you that in--if--unless you have an environment of security for the people to try to live normal lives, and the economic, politically--political and social environment is able to grow and flourish, then you are doomed to failure.  So, when you say it's all we--it's all up to the Iraqis, that's like saying a neighborhood that's been taken over by gangs, it's up to the people in the neighborhood.  We have to do whatever we can to provide them with an environment in which they can exist and begin to lead normal lives.  We are showing some success.  The, the strategy before was, "Go kill people." It was the old search-and-destroy.  "Go kill people and go back to your base." We've now got 53 or more outposts in Baghdad where Iraqi and American military are 24/7.  There are some progress being made, and General Petraeus will say that, too.  Enough?  We'll see.

MR. RUSSERT:  It's been more than four years.

SEN. McCAIN:  I know.

MR. RUSSERT:  And the American people are saying, "Why are we shedding our blood, and they're taking vacations as a parliament?" They don't have independent soldiers and battalions up and running.  Our "National Intelligence Estimate" "outlines increasingly perilous situation in which the United States has little control" "strong possibility of further deterioration, according to sources familiar with the document.

"It couches glimmers of optimism in deep uncertainty about whether the Iraqi leaders will be able to transcend sectarian interests," "fight against extremists, establish effective national institutions and end rampant corruption."

That's our own intelligence agency...

SEN. McCAIN:  Yes.

MR. RUSSERT:  ...four years out.

SEN. McCAIN:  Yes, and these same intelligence agencies gave us some very bad intelligence about four years ago, as well, as you might--as you might recall. But the fact, the fact is, this is long, hard difficult.  And we talk about these present challenges that we face.  We don't talk a lot about what happens if we fail, and I think that that's got to be part of any national discussion that we have.  And the consequences of failure are chaos, genocide and, when you--when--and I'm sure you will ask this at some point, what's plan B?  My, my, my question to those who say, "Let's set a date for withdrawal," what's your plan B?  And the fact is, if we spent time on plan A, we, we, and give it a chance to succeed, I think would be a useful way of spending our time.

MR. RUSSERT:  But under your plan, you're strongly suggesting we're going to be there for the next 10 years at least in order to secure and stabilize that country.

SEN. McCAIN:  I am suggesting that we will have--hopefully reach a situation where American troops will not be on the front lines, where--and, by the way, that will not be immediately--where American troops are able to withdraw. We've had troops in South Korea for 60 years, and Americans are, are very satisfied with that situation.  The key to it is, is the Iraqi military and police taking over these responsibilities.  And that is, I believe, the ultimate way we're going to know whether we can reduce American casualties and they take over the responsibilities for, for governing their own country and militarily attacking and resisting al-Qaeda and other sectarian violence which will be there for a long, long time.

MR. RUSSERT:  And we're going to be there for a long time.

SEN. McCAIN:  But if it is--if it is--if it is only in a role that is of support and American casualties are minimal, then I think it's probably worth the investment.  If the level of casualties stays where it is and we do not have success, then we know that that will be a, a condition that we cannot stand for.

MR. RUSSERT:  By when?

SEN. McCAIN:  I don't have a date.  I think that the important thing is whether we assess as we move along.  Everybody talks about--some people talk about April or May--August.  Some people talk about September.  The fact is that we've got to be showing progress along the way, and we will be--have plenty of time to assess that.

Look, Tim, I understand you, you are voicing the frustration that Americans feel.  We've only got four of the five brigades over there now.  We have just begun this new strategy.  It is barely beginning, and I think it ought to be given a chance to succeed or fail.  And for us to, to go for two months of funding after we voted time and time again.  The president, the president has vetoed, and we continue to, to try to micromanage this war, and, and if you want us out of there, then cut off the funding and bring them home tomorrow.

MR. RUSSERT:  Let me show you the kinds of things that are often said when soldiers are overseas, like this:  "There's no reason for the United States to remain.  The American people want them home.  I believe the majority of Congress wants them home.  Our continued military presence allows another situation to rise, which could then lead to the wounding, killing or capture of American fighting men and women.  We should do all in our power to avoid that.  What should be the criteria is our immediate, orderly withdrawal.  And if we do not do that and other Americans die then I" "say that the responsibilities for that lie with the Congress who did not exercise their authority under the Constitution.  For us to get into nation-building, law and order, etc., I think, is a tragic and terrible mistake."

You hear those kinds of words, right?

SEN. McCAIN:  Sure I do.  Americans are frustrated and saddened by the enormous sacrifice we've made and the gross mismanagement of the war.  Now, my response to that statement is and what happens after we leave?  Listen to all of the experts who will tell you that we can have a situation in the region which will, in, in the long run, entail far greater casualties, far greater dislocation, far greater threats to our national security than trying to give this an opportunity to succeed.  That's what the--my response to that heartfelt statement is.

MR. RUSSERT:  Well, those are your words from 1993 about Somalia.

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