The ten most competitive Senate races of 2008

By Jennifer E. Duffy, National Journal

updated 2:33 p.m. ET Oct. 19, 2007

WASHINGTON - In each Senate election cycle, the political parties must play the hands they're dealt. Opportunities to reshuffle the deck or trade in cards are virtually nonexistent. But, usually, each party finds it holds both high and low cards -- as well as the possibility of a winning hand. For 2008, though, Senate Democrats have been dealt the political equivalent of a royal flush, while Republicans received nothing but low cards.

The GOP must defend 22 seats, compared with just 12 for the Democrats. Republicans are stuck with at least five open seats; no Democratic incumbent is retiring. Democrats also hold a substantial fundraising advantage. And, finally, Republicans must play their lousy hand in a national political environment hostile to their party.

The 10 most competitive Senate races of 2008 are expected to be for seats now occupied by nine Republicans and just one Democrat. Republicans are retiring from four of those seats -- in Colorado (Wayne Allard), Nebraska (Chuck Hagel), New Mexico (Pete Domenici), and Virginia (John Warner). Vulnerable incumbents are running for re-election to the five other endangered GOP seats: Alaska's Ted Stevens, Maine's Susan Collins, Minnesota's Norm Coleman, New Hampshire's John Sununu, and Oregon's Gordon Smith. (Larry Craig of Idaho is the fifth Republican retiring from the Senate, but the GOP is expected to hold that seat easily.) The lone vulnerable Democratic incumbent is Louisiana's Mary Landrieu. A rundown of the contests to watch follows.

Alaska
Six months ago, anyone predicting that GOP Sen. Ted Stevens would become vulnerable in his bid for a seventh full term probably would have blamed his age. He turns 84 next month. Instead, Stevens is in trouble because of an FBI investigation. The bureau and the senator aren't talking, but most observers think that the probe stems from allegations that Stevens took money for legislative favors.

Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska

The senator is known for bringing billions of dollars in federal money to Alaska, and he has dominated state politics for decades, winning re-election with ease. At this point, Stevens's legal troubles raise more questions than answers. Will he be indicted? Will he run for re-election? Will he face challengers in the primary? And, regardless of what happens on the Republican side, can Democrats field a candidate who can take advantage of the situation in a solidly red state during a presidential election year?

Alaska's Democratic bench is nearly bare, but insiders often mention Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich as the party's first choice.

Stevens's ratings have plummeted in recent months. No one knows what his future holds, but it is clear that a normally safe GOP seat has become another headache for the party.

Colorado
Encouraged by their successes in the state in the past two elections, many Democrats have already colored Colorado blue for 2008 and have put this Senate seat in their win column. Their exuberance may be premature.

Sen. Wayne Allard, R-Colo.

This contest for the seat of two-term GOP Sen. Wayne Allard, who is retiring, is shaping up to be the kind of left-right ideological battle that Colorado is famous for hosting. The presumptive nominees are Democratic Rep. Mark Udall and former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer. First elected in 1998, Udall represents the 2nd Congressional District, which includes unabashedly liberal Boulder and extends west. Schaffer served in Congress from 1997 until 2002, representing the 4th District, which then encompassed the eastern third of the state and was as conservative as Udall's district is liberal.

Schaffer and Udall have polar-opposite voting records that each will use to paint the other as out of step with Colorado. Udall, who indicated in 2004 that he would run, has a big but not insurmountable head start. The polling that has been made public shows a potentially tight contest.

Because neither candidate will have trouble consolidating his base, independent voters will decide the race.

Louisiana
Mary Landrieu holds the dubious distinction of being the only endangered Senate Democrat. And many of her problems are not of her own making.

Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La.

Landrieu eked out victories in 1996 and 2002 against underwhelming Republican nominees. In both races New Orleans supplied nearly all of her winning margin, but the city's population has shrunk since Hurricane Katrina. In 2002, she won by 42,000 votes, and the question now is whether those 42,000 votes still exist. Landrieu is not helped by the fact that the state appears to be trending Republican; voters look likely to elect a GOP governor this year.

Landrieu has always walked a fine ideological line, compiling a moderate voting record while not alienating her party's base or Senate Democratic leaders. The incumbent will argue that she has found a good balance. Yet Republicans are certain to portray her as an out-of-step liberal.

The likely Republican nominee is a newcomer to the party. State Treasurer John Kennedy announced in August that he was leaving the Democratic Party and would stand for re-election this year as a Republican. He is running unopposed, but is advertising heavily across the state in what many assume is a precursor to a Senate bid. Kennedy was a Senate candidate in 2004 and drew a respectable 15 percent in a seven-person nonpartisan contest. Democrats are certain to question the sincerity of Kennedy's party switch and to remind voters that he ran to the left in 2004.

After years of criticism that she runs lackluster campaigns and that her Senate office was unresponsive to constituents, Landrieu has made changes and is getting much better reviews. She is likely to highlight her efforts to assist the state after Katrina and to argue that Louisiana needs a senator in the majority. Still, it is equally likely that Landrieu will be fighting for her political life.

Maine
Two-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins is an avowed moderate who is popular with voters, but that hasn't stopped Democrats from labeling her "the Lincoln Chafee of 2008," a reference to another moderate Republican senator from New England who lost his re-election bid last year.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine

Despite Chafee's centrist record and frequent opposition to President Bush's policies, Democrats successfully tied him to the unpopular Bush and to the war in Iraq, which Chafee opposed. They plan to use the same strategy against Collins. There are, however, two critical differences between Chafee and Collins: She does not have the kind of baggage he had going into the race, and she won't be facing a debilitating primary.

The presumptive Democratic nominee is Rep. Tom Allen, who was first elected in 1996 to represent the Portland-based 1st Congressional District. Allen has amassed a liberal voting record, including voting against authorizing Bush to use force in Iraq, that he says is more in line with the views of voters than is Collins's record. Allen is not without challenges, though. He needs to get better known in the sprawling 2nd District, the only other congressional district in the state. And he needs to educate voters about his own record while tackling the tougher job of redefining Collins.

Early polling gives Collins a very healthy lead and solid job-performance ratings, meaning that Allen has much work to do. But Maine is a small state with inexpensive media markets, and Allen will have the time and the resources to make his case.

Minnesota
GOP Sen. Norm Coleman sits near the top of the Democrats' target list, but he will have to wait until June to find out who his challenger will be. Four Democrats are seeking the nomination; because the candidates have agreed to forgo a primary, a state party convention will select the nominee.

Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn.

The front-runners are satirist Al Franken and 2000 Democratic Senate candidate Mike Ciresi. Franken has put together a professional campaign and is raising money at an impressive clip, but he starts the race with high negatives. Ciresi is a much stronger candidate than he was in 2000. He is trying to turn Franken's celebrity against him, arguing that the comedian is unelectable.

Democrats are likely to make the war in Iraq and Coleman's support of Bush's agenda the central issues in the general election. Polling gives Coleman comfortable leads over both of the top Democrats, but this race will become very competitive once the Democrats have a nominee.

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