For two primaries, several scenarios

By Adam Nagourney

updated 3:10 a.m. ET May 6, 2008

It’s almost over.

Well, not quite. But the Democratic presidential primaries taking place on Tuesday in North Carolina and Indiana have more delegates up for grabs than any of the remaining contests. For political, demographic and mathematical reasons, those states have the potential to reshape the competition between Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.

It will be an opportunity for Mrs. Clinton to make the case that Democratic sentiment is swinging in her favor, and to slice into Mr. Obama’s lead in pledged delegates and in the popular vote (putting aside the disputed contests in Florida and Michigan). For Mr. Obama, it is a chance to tamp down talk that Mrs. Clinton has exposed him as a flawed general election candidate.

You can tell where Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama think they have their best shot by where they will be on Tuesday night: Mrs. Clinton has a hotel ballroom in Indianapolis, and Mr. Obama, after some last-minute debate, finally decided on a rally at a coliseum in Raleigh, N.C. But to say that both sides are anxious would be an understatement, and with that in mind, here are three possible outcomes to watch for Tuesday, in no particular order: Mrs. Clinton wins both states, Mr. Obama does, or they split:

1) Mrs. Clinton wins Indiana and North Carolina.

Given the obstacles that face her, a sweep by Mrs. Clinton on Tuesday is one outcome that could, to borrow a phrase from Mr. Obama, change the world, or at least begin to.

“That’s a sign that she is gaining momentum in the race,” said Ron Klain, a Democratic consultant who has not taken sides. How much such a result would change the race would depend on the contours of her victories.

A month ago, Indiana was considered relatively even, with perhaps a slight edge to Mr. Obama, of Illinois.

“Indiana is the first state that borders Illinois, and 25 percent of our primary electorate get their television news out of Chicago,” said Dan Parker, the Indiana Democratic chairman, who is backing Mrs. Clinton.

By contrast, Mr. Obama seemed to hold such an advantage in North Carolina that Mrs. Clinton’s aides debated making only a token effort there.

Now, though, both campaigns see both states as highly competitive, as evidenced by the amount of time Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama have spent there in recent days. Mrs. Clinton has said she expects to win in Indiana; candidates do not normally do that.

If Mr. Obama loses in Indiana because of white blue-collar support for Mrs. Clinton it would be the third time in a row, after Ohio and Pennsylvania, that he has lost a big state because of an inability to win over enough of those kinds of voters.

Mrs. Clinton has argued that those losses in a primary augur poorly for Mr. Obama in the fall; historically that is debatable, but another defeat at the hands of middle-class white voters in Indiana would add to the perception that he could lose in the general election.

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And should Mrs. Clinton win North Carolina, or come close, with white support for her overwhelming Mr. Obama’s presumed strength among blacks there, that would fuel the argument that he has been hurt by his ties to his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr.

Steve Jarding, a Democratic consultant who has not taken sides in the race, said, “If he loses both — and don’t forget he had a 25-point lead in North Carolina — then you’ve got to look at what has happened over the past four weeks, and Reverend Wright comes to the fore.”

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