But the overestimation of al Qaeda’s power caused major problems for the United States, not the least of which has helped propel us into the Iraq war. Fear that Iraq was developing a weapon of mass destruction became sufficiently unbearable to President Bush and Congress that they launched and supported a preemptive war based on a poorly defined threat. Senior members of the Bush administration (either by honest mistake or purposeful manipulation) exaggerated intelligence and drew an erroneous link between the September 11 attack and Iraq in order to pursue a separate agenda: the elimination of Saddam Hussein. Meanwhile, Congress foisted on the administration two ill-conceived massive governmental expansions: the Department of Homeland Security and the new intelligence superbureaucracy of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The resulting massive increase in homeland security action, chasing of phantom threats, and protection of unlikely targets deflected America’s attention from the real work at hand: finding and crushing terrorist cells at home and abroad.

Part 1 of this book attempts to properly define the real and current threats posed by al Qaeda, lone wolves, Hezbollah, and Iran. Part 2 takes the reader inside the world of counterterrorism, drawing on experiences I’ve had with the U.S. Army Special Forces, the State Department, the White House, the United Nations, and the New York City Police Department (NYPD). It also outlines and evaluates counterterrorism strategies since 9/11. My goal is to distinguish between real threats and hype, and to separate the most effective ways to defeat terrorism from the more wasteful and unproductive strategies.

Writing this book involved some professional risk. Terrorism experts, by nature, tend to overstate the threat, or at least take the safe route in prophesying an imminent, 9/11-scale attack. No terrorism expert or government leader wants to appear soft on terrorism. It’s always safer to predict the worst; if nothing happens, the exaggerators are rarely held accountable for their nightmare scenarios. In fact, since 9/11 most predictions have been terribly wrong. Every summer there’s terrorist “chatter,” and every summer the same doomsayers predict the worst. One day they’ll be right (even a broken clock is right twice a day), but when they are, we should keep in mind the many, many dark scenarios that never played out.

Admittedly, fearmongering is good business for terrorism consultants. By conjuring threats to our ports, our suburban shopping malls, and our agro-industry, terrorism consultancies thrive. I’ve chosen to resist that temptation. Yes, the threat of terrorism is real and enduring. I expect further attacks in the United States. I’m also very concerned about the steady growth of radical pockets around the world, particularly in Europe. But in the best interest of our national security, I always try to be balanced and accurate in my threat assessments.

Video   How to fight terrorism? Intelligence May 14: Author Michael Sheehan thinks better spying is the way to fight terror. He talks to TODAY's Matt Lauer about his new book, “Crush the Cell: How to Defeat Terrorism Without Terrorizing Ourselves.” Today Show Books

It’s time to set the record straight. Those who say we’ve entered World War III are not to be taken seriously. This isn’t World War III. It’s ridiculous to equate the rise of radical Islamic terrorist groups with World War III. Consider that World War II was advanced by two of the world’s largest and most powerful economic and military states, Germany and Japan. Half of the free world was occupied by hostile troops, children were evacuated from London, and Stalingrad was under siege throughout the winter of 1942–43. Tens of millions were killed, maimed, or displaced, and six million Jews were systematically murdered by the Nazis — all within a period of about four years. As of the date of this book’s publication, America hasn’t been attacked in six years. The Islamic terrorists are nasty and brutish, but by no estimation do they match the caliber of our enemies in World War II. The primary terrorist threat, al Qaeda and its associated groups, has not controlled a single country since they lost the Afghan sanctuary provided by the Taliban regime.

I live in New York City, the prime terrorist target. And I’m staying here. I choose to make my home here not out of a false sense of bravado but because I’ve conducted a thorough assessment of our safety. If I felt my family was at risk, I’d move out to the suburbs immediately — or, if the danger seemed particularly menacing, to the foothills of Montana. It’s undoubtedly safer there (although homeland security funding doesn’t reflect this), but I sleep secure each night in Manhattan knowing that the terrorists aren’t invincible; they can be deterred and stopped.

When they do strike again, I’m hopeful we can manage the attack appropriately. In this regard I’m more confident than most. As a terrorism analyst for NBC News, I’m very impressed with the professionalism and knowledge of the senior news staff there, including Nightly News anchor Brian Williams. I trust that NBC News won’t hype a terrorist attack to get ratings, but will cover it in a sober-minded and appropriate manner. I also know analysts and producers at ABC, CBS, Fox, and CNN, and I believe that they’ll do the same. I’m less convinced about some of the other cable shows and talk radio.

For the time being, my family and I will remain in New York City. I won’t move to Montana. I won’t send my children to the countryside, as Londoners did in 1942, to avoid being killed in the next bomb attack. But I’ve also promised a great many of my fellow New Yorkers over the past six years that I’ll let them know if I surmise that it is time to depart the number one al Qaeda target.

Reprinted from the book “Crush the Cell” by Michael A. Sheehan. Copyright © 2008 by Michael A. Sheehan. Published by Crown, a division of Random House, Inc.

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